The Ladder of Inference
Adapted from The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook.
We live in a world of self-generating beliefs that remain largely untested. We adopt those beliefs because they are based on conclusions, which are inferred from what we observe, plus our past experience. Our ability to achieve the results we truly desire is eroded by our feelings that:
Our beliefs are the truth.
The truth is obvious.
Our beliefs are based on real data.
The data we select are the real data.
For example: I am standing before the board of my company, making a presentation. They all seem engaged and alert, except for Larry, at the end of the table, who seems bored. While some others are engaging in the conversation, he checks his phone and then says “Great, thanks” at the end. And that is all.
His opinion matters to me because he has influence over the implementation of my plan. So I am getting upset.
He has done this before, I think. I bet he didn't even read the work I did. Now I am going to have to go around him to the other board members, and find out what he thinks, and it is going to take me forever to work this out, and I haven’t got time, and I wish I had never invited him to participate, and he probably is going to badmouth my work to the others, and maybe I can get him off the board, and I should have never agreed to let him get involved, and my judgment on these issues is pathetic. I should have listened to Sarah. SHE knows how to identify good people, and maybe I am just not cut out for this kind of work...
In those few seconds I have climbed the ladder of inference. Climbing the ladder goes something like this:
I started with the observable data: Larry's seeming distraction, which is so self-evident that it would show up on a videotape recorder . . .
I selected some momentary details about come behavior that I observed: his glance away from me and apparent yawn.
I added some meanings of my own, based on other experiences I think I may have had.
I moved rapidly up to assumptions about Larry's current state (he's bored) . . .
And I concluded that Larry, in general, thinks I'm incompetent. Or worse. In fact, I now believe that Larry (and probably everyone whom I associate with Larry) is dangerously opposed to me..
thus, as I reach the top of the ladder, I'm not only devising a plan to remove him, but I am also questioning my competence as a professional.
It all seems so reasonable, and it happens so quickly, that I'm not even aware I've done it.
All the rungs of the ladder take place in my head.
The only parts visible to anyone else are the directly observable data at the bottom, and my own decision to take action at the top.
And, I use this ladder to influence the data I collect next time I see Larry in a meeting. Confirmation bias kicks in. “See? I knew it!” And off we go….
Then, of course, Larry can tell by my changed behavior that something is up.
He observes my strange, distant behavior and probably jumps up some rungs on his own ladder. For no apparent reason, before too long, we could find ourselves avoiding each other and conspiring to undermine each other.
What might actually be going on? We will never know until we ask. Larry might indeed have been bored by my presentation. Or, he might have been eager to read the report on paper. He might have been concerned about his sick son, who kept him up the night before (thus the yawn). He might have some very legitimate thoughts about the presentation that are worth hearing. He might be shy, intimidated, dealing with the flu.
Using the Ladder of Inference
You can't live your life without adding meaning or drawing conclusions. It would be an inefficient, tedious way to live.
But you can improve your performance, and your relationships with people around you, by thinking and reflecting.
What just happened?
Were you triggered?
If so, why?
Is the fact that you are triggered taking your reflective capacity away?
Once you and others understand the concepts behind the "ladder of inference," you have a safe way to stop a conversation in its tracks and ask several questions:
I can ask for data in an open-ended way: "Larry, what was your reaction to this presentation?" I can test my assumptions: "Larry, are you bored?" Or I can simply test the observable data: "You've been quiet, Larry." To which he might reply: "Yeah, I'm taking notes; I love this stuff."
I stay on my side of the net.
The point of this approach is not to corner Larry, or to diagnose Larry, but to make our thinking processes visible, to see what the differences are in our perceptions and what we have in common.
(You might even say, "I notice I'm moving up the ladder of inference, and maybe we all are. What's the data here?")
Paired with POP, Self-Tuning, Managing Triggers, Capture and Hold, Smart Questions and Staying on Your Side of the Net, understanding and using the Ladder of Inference is a powerful way to improve relationships and enhance team performance.